By Francisco Acevedo
HAVANA TIMES – If 2022 and 2023 could generally be considered years of despair and disappointment due to the hundreds of thousands of Cubans who decided to leave the country by any means, convinced that there was no future here, 2024 could be labeled as the year of collapse.
Three nationwide blackouts in the last quarter left the National Electric Power System (SEN) significantly weakened, even prompting the approval of a decree outlining what to do when it happens again in the future. In other words, it’s clear that the country’s upper echelons know it could happen again at any moment.
The energy crisis, far from being resolved, is deepening due to the antiquated and overused state of its old power plants, the fuel deficit, and the government’s financial incapacity (primarily in foreign currency) to reverse this situation.
Last week, before the National Assembly (Parliament), the Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, acknowledged that the SEN “has reached its lowest levels since 2019.” In recent years, five generation units, equivalent to one-third of the demand, have been lost, and distributed generation only produces 37% of its capacity.
Power outages exceeding 1,000 MW have become daily occurrences, with sustained peaks above 1,500 MW and records surpassing 1,700 MW. Prolonged blackouts last 15 to 20 consecutive hours in various parts of the island, and power cuts have even reached Havana, which was previously untouched in past years.
Breakdowns at thermoelectric plants across the island have become countless, with barely a day passing without at least one plant out of service due to failures or maintenance. Turkish floating power plants were employed, but most left the country due to unpaid bills.
Adding to this is the sharp decline in international tourism, with a drop of nearly 50% since 2017.
Two and a half years after US President Barack Obama surprised the world by restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba in 2014, the enthusiasm that followed a notable wave of investments and tourism dissipated. This wave had been driven by agreements signed by major US companies like Google, AT&T, and Major League Baseball, among others.
Some political prisoners were released, internet access expanded, and more private enterprises were allowed within the outdated socialist framework.
The financial implosion that followed—primarily due to the tightening of US policies under Donald Trump, Cuba’s poor economic management, and the disastrous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic—dealt a fatal blow to tourism on the island.
Trump reinstated Cuba on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation that severely limits its ability to do business globally and also affects tourist attraction by painting it as an unsafe destination.
Joe Biden’s modest efforts—lifting limits on remittances from Cuban-Americans, increasing bilateral flights, and creating more banking opportunities for Cuban entrepreneurs—have not translated into economic recovery. This is partly because Biden’s administration found its hands tied following the harsh repression after the July 11, 2021, protests.
The humanitarian parole program was his main contribution to US – Cuba policy, but even that has been suspended, with little hope of it resuming as originally designed.
Domestically, many of the thousands of private businesses the Cuban government has permitted to open in recent years are struggling to stay afloat, facing a maze of bureaucratic hurdles and daily uncertainty about whether they’ll be shut down overnight.
The fuel shortage underpins nearly every other issue: low state production, lack of transportation, streets piled with garbage, delays in delivering basic rationed goods (if they even arrive), medicine shortages, and the blackouts. These factors combine to make the current moment even worse than the deep crisis of the 1990s known as the Special Period.
Even the infant mortality rate—once the pride of the regime, with levels lower than those in the United States—has risen significantly, largely because hospitals are barely functioning, plagued by the same problems as the rest of the country.
Hurricanes and earthquakes, which were infrequent in the past decade, have now added to the chaos, bringing casualties not seen in some time following natural disasters.
With Donald Trump on the verge of returning to the White House, potentially with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, expectations suggest that 2025 will bring historic levels of international pressure.
Currently, the Caribbean nation is experiencing one of its most challenging situations in recent history, and the specific measures taken so far do not seem likely to resolve the crisis.
Personally, I believe we have surpassed every stage of agony and are now in the throes of a death struggle. The year 2025 must be the year of definitive liberation.
Read more from Cuba here on Havana Times.
