By Francisco Acevedo
HAVANA TIMES – We have never echoed rumors on this site, but this time it’s so strong that we cannot turn our backs on it, because it was the talk of the town all week, both on the streets and social media.
It’s evidently about Raul Castro, whose health is in question. This is not the first time something similar has happened, and like before, it’s probably false rumors. However, what we want to analyze is what might come next.
When his brother Fidel died in 2016, the news was announced quickly, but the situation now is different, because it was known that upon his death, Raul would be the one to take control of the country, even though someone else held the presidency.
However, when the younger Castro, officially Cuba’s president from 2008 to 2018, passes away, no one can imagine the chaos that could ensue in Cuba.
In fact, some non-government media outlets have already reported his death, and with the ongoing official silence, everyone is on edge. On previous occasions, a “proof of life” hasn’t taken long, but this time the wait suggests that if he hasn’t died, he’s at least not healthy enough to appear on camera.
In theory, nothing extraordinary would happen with his passing, as our president Miguel Díaz-Canel would continue governing as he has been. However, that’s not the case, because Diaz Canel’s “handpicked” mandate isn’t just an opposition joke, it’s a reality, since it’s Raul’s approval that counts, not that of those surrounding him.
The real power in this country lies with the military, and after Gen. Raul Castro, it’s unclear who’s in charge which is Diaz-Canel’s main concern, and also that of Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, because without military backing, they are nobodies.
Forget the rubber-stamp Cuban Parliament and all the civilian structures; once Raul is gone, the future of this island will once again be dictated by those in olive green.
Clearly, something is going on with the health of Raul, who turned 93 on June 3. Perhaps, like in previous occasions, the fatal outcome won’t happen, but the leadership is already trembling, seeking the generals’ complicity.
Although none of them know what the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is, and even less how to manage the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that proliferate in the national economy, they’re sharpening their claws because they know they own the main economic enclaves, both in hotel infrastructure and businesses.
For now, it was exiled Juan Juan Almeida, a well-known influencer and son of the late Commander of the Revolution Juan Almeida Bosque, who raised the doubt. He is always very well-informed about the current affairs of the high-ranking elite, as he maintains ties with sources close to power.
The recent deaths of four high-ranking generals in Cuba’s Armed Forces also raises concern about the future of the country’s military structure.
Major General Jorge Luis Guerrero Almaguer, who joined the Revolutionary Armed Forces in 1960, was one of the latest to pass away on September 16. But before him, this same month saw the deaths of Major General Romarico Sotomayor Garcia, Brigadier General Juan Israel Cervantes Tablada, and retired Brigadier General Juan Antonio Hernández.
All of them were considered veterans with notable influence in Cuba’s recent history, and while most of the nation has no idea who they were, believe me, the high-ranking elite knows well what their departure means.
The redistribution of power that usually follows the death of an autocratic leader can also be traumatic, especially when there’s no other figure with the same historical relevance or capacity to maintain absolute control, as is the case in Cuba.
Everyone knows that Diaz-Canel’s government is weak because the real power brokers are those who pull the strings behind the scenes, and they’ve been working in recent decades to secure the economic future of their descendants.
From Havana to Santiago, in any barracks where the president shows up, his authority is beneath that of the commanding officer, and to gain their support, he has to make countless concessions of all kinds.
At this moment, he’s a convenient figure for those who want to continue ruling from the shadows, but an internal power struggle within the military leadership could arise, complicating things significantly.
No one doubts that all the luxuries flaunted by Sandro Castro, the dictator’s grandson, are not shared by the children of many generals. The hunger for power might awaken a beast who feels stronger without the 93-year-old in charge.
For now, while the National Television News doesn’t issue a denial, rumors will keep spreading, and Diaz-Canel and more than one puppet in Parliament will continue trembling.
Read more from Cuba here on Havana Times.
